The Door

An opportunity you never asked for. Yes or no?

621 people have stood exactly here. 73 of them are still inside it — their capsules have not opened yet. The rest already know how it went.

58%would decide the same way again

17 mowhere the two paths cross

22 momedian time since deciding

The answer changes depending on when you ask

This is the finding that matters, and it is the reason a snapshot of opinion is misleading. Shortly after the decision, the people who said no are happier. Years later, the people who said yes are — and by a wider margin.

Time since deciding	Said yes	Said no
6 months	45% would do it again	66% would do it again
12 months	50% would do it again	62% would do it again
24 months	74% would do it again	55% would do it again
36 months	65% would do it again	45% would do it again
48 months	75% would do it again	40% would do it again

Regret about saying yes fades. Regret about saying no accrues.

Where each path ended up

They chose	Would again	Mixed	Would not	Total
Said yes	183	43	67	293
Said no	136	65	54	255

What they said once they knew

Written after the capsule opened — not while deciding.

“It wasn't the opportunity that changed things. It was who I met inside it.”
Said yes · 67 months on

“It wasn't the opportunity that changed things. It was who I met inside it.”
Said yes · 66 months on

“I turned it down to be sensible, which isn't a value I actually hold.”
Said no · 66 months on

Common questions

What usually happens to people who said yes?

In this archive, 70% of people who said yes said they would do it again when asked around four years later. At six months it was 45%. Regret about saying yes tends to fade as time passes.

Is it better to saying yes or saying no?

Neither, universally — and the honest answer changes with time. Early on, said no looks better (66% against 45% at six months). Later it reverses (70% against 39% at four years). The two lines cross at about 17 months.

How is this measured?

Every capsule records a decision and a confidence level before the outcome is known, then the person is asked afterwards whether they would decide the same way again. The percentages are Gaussian-smoothed over 548 answered capsules. Where too few sit under the kernel, no figure is shown rather than a noisy one.

Is this advice?

No. It is a record of what happened to other people, which is a different and more useful thing. Nobody here knows your situation.

You are about to decide something

Write down the real reason and how sure you are, before you know how it goes. In 30, 90 or 365 days it opens and asks you one question — and you find out whether your judgement was worth anything.

Seal a capsule