The Ledger

Spend it, risk it — or hold on to it?

562 people have stood exactly here. 67 of them are still inside it — their capsules have not opened yet. The rest already know how it went.

59%would decide the same way again

22 mowhere the two paths cross

24 momedian time since deciding

The answer changes depending on when you ask

This is the finding that matters, and it is the reason a snapshot of opinion is misleading. Shortly after the decision, the people who held it are happier. Years later, the people who spent it are — and by a wider margin.

Time since deciding	Spent it	Held it
6 months	38% would do it again	78% would do it again
12 months	40% would do it again	72% would do it again
24 months	63% would do it again	56% would do it again
36 months	70% would do it again	57% would do it again
48 months	57% would do it again	62% would do it again

Regret about spending it fades. Regret about holding it accrues.

Where each path ended up

They chose	Would again	Mixed	Would not	Total
Spent it	145	48	72	265
Held it	145	41	44	230

What they said once they knew

Written after the capsule opened — not while deciding.

“Six months later everything went sideways and I had the cushion. That was the return.”
Held it · 67 months on

“Safe, and slightly smaller. I don't know what I'm saving it for.”
Held it · 66 months on

“I called it a calculated risk. It was a mood.”
Spent it · 66 months on

“By every spreadsheet it was a bad decision. It bought me four years.”
Spent it · 66 months on

Common questions

What usually happens to people who spent it?

In this archive, 59% of people who spent it said they would do it again when asked around four years later. At six months it was 38%. Regret about spending it tends to fade as time passes.

Is it better to spending it or holding it?

Neither, universally — and the honest answer changes with time. Early on, held it looks better (78% against 38% at six months). Later it reverses (59% against 60% at four years). The two lines cross at about 22 months.

How is this measured?

Every capsule records a decision and a confidence level before the outcome is known, then the person is asked afterwards whether they would decide the same way again. The percentages are Gaussian-smoothed over 495 answered capsules. Where too few sit under the kernel, no figure is shown rather than a noisy one.

Is this advice?

No. It is a record of what happened to other people, which is a different and more useful thing. Nobody here knows your situation.

You are about to decide something

Write down the real reason and how sure you are, before you know how it goes. In 30, 90 or 365 days it opens and asks you one question — and you find out whether your judgement was worth anything.

Seal a capsule