The Distance

Move far away, or stay near your people?

680 people have stood exactly here. 65 of them are still inside it — their capsules have not opened yet. The rest already know how it went.

53%would decide the same way again

14 mowhere the two paths cross

22 momedian time since deciding

The answer changes depending on when you ask

This is the finding that matters, and it is the reason a snapshot of opinion is misleading. Shortly after the decision, the people who stayed near are happier. Years later, the people who went are — and by a wider margin.

Time since deciding	Went	Stayed near
6 months	45% would do it again	64% would do it again
12 months	51% would do it again	54% would do it again
24 months	53% would do it again	51% would do it again
36 months	61% would do it again	37% would do it again
48 months	62% would do it again	28% would do it again

Regret about going fades. Regret about staying near accrues.

Where each path ended up

They chose	Would again	Mixed	Would not	Total
Went	189	56	94	339
Stayed near	138	68	70	276

What they said once they knew

Written after the capsule opened — not while deciding.

“Right call, obviously. I still read the flight prices.”
Stayed near · 67 months on

“I was there for the year everything fell apart. That was the entire point.”
Stayed near · 66 months on

“I stayed for people who moved away eighteen months later.”
Stayed near · 66 months on

“The first winter was brutal and I have never once wanted the old street back.”
Went · 66 months on

Common questions

What usually happens to people who went?

In this archive, 61% of people who went said they would do it again when asked around four years later. At six months it was 45%. Regret about going tends to fade as time passes.

Is it better to going or staying near?

Neither, universally — and the honest answer changes with time. Early on, stayed near looks better (64% against 45% at six months). Later it reverses (61% against 28% at four years). The two lines cross at about 14 months.

How is this measured?

Every capsule records a decision and a confidence level before the outcome is known, then the person is asked afterwards whether they would decide the same way again. The percentages are Gaussian-smoothed over 615 answered capsules. Where too few sit under the kernel, no figure is shown rather than a noisy one.

Is this advice?

No. It is a record of what happened to other people, which is a different and more useful thing. Nobody here knows your situation.

You are about to decide something

Write down the real reason and how sure you are, before you know how it goes. In 30, 90 or 365 days it opens and asks you one question — and you find out whether your judgement was worth anything.

Seal a capsule