Prior Belief

The Knot

Keep working on a relationship, or let it end?

739 people have stood exactly here. 75 of them are still inside it — their capsules have not opened yet. The rest already know how it went.

57%would decide the same way again
20 mowhere the two paths cross
20 momedian time since deciding

The answer changes depending on when you ask

This is the finding that matters, and it is the reason a snapshot of opinion is misleading. Shortly after the decision, the people who stayed and worked are happier. Years later, the people who let it go are — and by a wider margin.

Time since decidingLet it goStayed and worked
6 months45% would do it again63% would do it again
12 months50% would do it again61% would do it again
24 months60% would do it again56% would do it again
36 months64% would do it again47% would do it again
48 months80% would do it again43% would do it again

Regret about ending it fades. Regret about staying in it accrues.

Where each path ended up

They choseWould againMixedWould notTotal
Let it go1945868320
Stayed and worked1867979344

What they said once they knew

Written after the capsule opened — not while deciding.

“The relief arrived about four months late and then never left.”

Let it go · 67 months on

“I confused a bad season for a bad person.”

Let it go · 67 months on

“The relief arrived about four months late and then never left.”

Let it go · 67 months on

“The relief arrived about four months late and then never left.”

Let it go · 66 months on

Common questions

What usually happens to people who let it go?

In this archive, 75% of people who let it go said they would do it again when asked around four years later. At six months it was 45%. Regret about ending it tends to fade as time passes.

Is it better to ending it or staying in it?

Neither, universally — and the honest answer changes with time. Early on, stayed and worked looks better (63% against 45% at six months). Later it reverses (75% against 45% at four years). The two lines cross at about 20 months.

How is this measured?

Every capsule records a decision and a confidence level before the outcome is known, then the person is asked afterwards whether they would decide the same way again. The percentages are Gaussian-smoothed over 664 answered capsules. Where too few sit under the kernel, no figure is shown rather than a noisy one.

Is this advice?

No. It is a record of what happened to other people, which is a different and more useful thing. Nobody here knows your situation.

You are about to decide something

Write down the real reason and how sure you are, before you know how it goes. In 30, 90 or 365 days it opens and asks you one question — and you find out whether your judgement was worth anything.

Seal a capsule

The other eight