The Leap

Leave something stable for something uncertain?

798 people have stood exactly here. 84 of them are still inside it — their capsules have not opened yet. The rest already know how it went.

56%would decide the same way again

22 mowhere the two paths cross

24 momedian time since deciding

The answer changes depending on when you ask

This is the finding that matters, and it is the reason a snapshot of opinion is misleading. Shortly after the decision, the people who stayed are happier. Years later, the people who leapt are — and by a wider margin.

Time since deciding	Leapt	Stayed
6 months	52% would do it again	68% would do it again
12 months	52% would do it again	64% would do it again
24 months	61% would do it again	57% would do it again
36 months	64% would do it again	48% would do it again
48 months	64% would do it again	40% would do it again

Regret about leaving fades. Regret about staying accrues.

Where each path ended up

They chose	Would again	Mixed	Would not	Total
Leapt	209	63	82	354
Stayed	193	69	98	360

What they said once they knew

Written after the capsule opened — not while deciding.

“The money took nineteen months to recover. Everything else recovered in three.”
Leapt · 67 months on

“I stayed for the pension, and I think about that sentence a lot.”
Stayed · 66 months on

“The money took nineteen months to recover. Everything else recovered in three.”
Leapt · 66 months on

Common questions

What usually happens to people who leapt?

In this archive, 63% of people who leapt said they would do it again when asked around four years later. At six months it was 52%. Regret about leaving tends to fade as time passes.

Is it better to leaving or staying?

Neither, universally — and the honest answer changes with time. Early on, stayed looks better (68% against 52% at six months). Later it reverses (63% against 44% at four years). The two lines cross at about 22 months.

How is this measured?

Every capsule records a decision and a confidence level before the outcome is known, then the person is asked afterwards whether they would decide the same way again. The percentages are Gaussian-smoothed over 714 answered capsules. Where too few sit under the kernel, no figure is shown rather than a noisy one.

Is this advice?

No. It is a record of what happened to other people, which is a different and more useful thing. Nobody here knows your situation.

You are about to decide something

Write down the real reason and how sure you are, before you know how it goes. In 30, 90 or 365 days it opens and asks you one question — and you find out whether your judgement was worth anything.

Seal a capsule